If you’ve been to the range or checked your favorite online ammo retailer lately, you’ve probably noticed the sting: a box of 9mm that felt like a deal last year now hits a little harder in the wallet. According to fresh market tracking, we’re seeing steady increases tied directly to tariffs on raw materials and imported ammo. It’s not quite the crazy pandemic spikes, but it’s real—and it’s adding up fast for regular folks who shoot for fun, training, or defense.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: 9mm Prices on the Rise
Retail data compiled by Ammunition Depot shows the average price per round of 9mm full metal jacket (FMJ)—the go-to range ammo for most shooters—has climbed since late 2025. It briefly topped 35 cents per round in January 2026, about 10 cents higher than the 2025 average. For someone grabbing 1,000 rounds, that’s an extra $100 out of pocket compared to last year.
Wholesale numbers tell a similar story. On a recent episode of The Reload podcast, Nathaniel Boos of Black Basin Outdoors noted cases jumping from $186 to $196, with another 5-7% bump expected through the rest of 2026. Major manufacturers are openly passing costs along.
What Manufacturers Are Saying Behind the Scenes
The Kinetic Group (big names like Federal, Remington, Speer, and Blazer) just announced price hikes of 2-10% across the board, blaming “unprecedented cost increases” in copper, lead, zinc, and propellants. Olin Corporation, which owns Winchester, had a rough Q4 2025. CEO Kenneth Lane pointed straight at tariffs jacking up brass and copper prices, forcing job cuts and future pass-throughs to customers. “We’ve got to start passing through a lot of these cost increases,” he told investors.
Gun makers are feeling it too. Smith & Wesson reported tariff hits to gross margins (120 basis points, then 80, then 160 in different quarters), mostly from steel. Ruger’s CEO mentioned tariff uncertainty alongside inflation and softer demand.
Tariffs Hit Imports Hard – And That Affects Everyone
One big shift: cheaper imported ammunition is disappearing. Brazilian imports, which covered about 12% of U.S. demand, have reportedly dried up completely. Turkish and Eastern European options that kept prices competitive are also getting squeezed out. Less competition means domestic makers can charge more, even as they deal with their own higher material costs.
Retailers are seeing the ripple effects up close. One shop owner in Washington State watched lead prices jump as much as 150% due to shipping and raw material costs. Another in Utah said increases are coming monthly now instead of twice a year. Several told The Trace they’ve had no choice but to raise shelf prices to stay profitable, though some are still eating the difference for now.
There’s also the nitrocellulose shortage— the key ingredient for smokeless powder—that’s been lingering since the Ukraine war disrupted global supplies. Tariffs on China and elsewhere have made it tougher to find alternatives.
This Isn’t 2020 All Over Again (Yet)
To be clear, we’re nowhere near the pandemic madness when 9mm FMJ hit 95 cents a round. Prices had settled around 23 cents by mid-2025 before this recent creep upward. Many retailers say demand is actually softer right now—the so-called “Trump slump” where gun and ammo sales often dip under Republican administrations because panic buying slows.
Still, the combination of tariffs, global supply issues, and potential oil/shipping spikes from international tensions could keep pressure on prices.
What Should Shooters Do?
- Buy smarter, not faster: Stock up on what you actually use if you find a good deal, but avoid feeding panic cycles.
- Consider reloading: Components like lead and primers are also more expensive, but long-term it can help control costs for high-volume shooters.
- Watch the market: Sites like Ammunition Depot and manufacturer announcements give early signals.
- Voice your concerns: Gun owners and industry groups are already lobbying for targeted exemptions—tariffs are a blunt tool that can hit American shooters and manufacturers in unexpected ways.
The irony isn’t lost on anyone. A president who calls himself the most pro-gun ever has trade policies creating higher costs in the one area shooters feel every single time they pull the trigger. Whether you support the broader tariff strategy or not, the data shows it’s having a measurable impact on ammo prices right now.
